Impact of Climate Factors on Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in Malaysia: A Generalised Linear Models Approach

Authors

  • Lau Yan Mun Department of Pure and Applied Mathematics, School of Mathematical Sciences, Sunway University, 47500 Selangor, MALAYSIA https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0419-8734
  • Khoo Wooi Chen Institute Actuarial Science and Data Analytics, UCSI University, 56000 Kuala Lumpur, MALAYSIA
  • Yeh-Ching Low School of Computing and Artificial Intelligence, Faculty of Engineering and Technology, Sunway University, 47500 Selangor, MALAYSIA https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3450-2538

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.22452/

Keywords:

Hand Foot Mouth Disease (HFMD), Zero-inflated Models, Generalised Linear Models, Climate Factors Analysis, Model Fitting and Prediction

Abstract

Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease (HFMD) is a re-emerging infectious disease in the Asia-Pacific region, particularly in Malaysia. To the best of our knowledge, studies focusing on analyzing the relationship between climate factors and HFMD in Malaysia have not used 10 years of climate data or conducted research covering all states in the country. These existing studies have suggested that examining more data would produce more precise results. Therefore, this study employs generalized linear models (GLMs) to examine the relationship between climate factors and HFMD incidences and to forecast the HFMD cases. Data from 2009 to 2019 were analyzed using five different distributions across fourteen Malaysian states, considering daily HFMD cases, temperature, relative humidity, and rainfall. The Zero-inflated Negative Binomial model was identified as the most appropriate for analyzing and predicting HFMD cases in multiple states, providing valuable insights for policymakers and health authorities.

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Published

30-06-2026

Issue

Vol. 45 No. Sp1 (2026): Special Issue: FAST-UTHM GLOBAL NEXUS CONFERENCE 2024 - 9th International Conference on the Application of Science and Mathematics (SCIEMATHIC) 2024

Section

Special Issue - FAST-UTHM Global Nexus Conference 2024

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